Comparison

Polymarket vs PredictIt (2026)

Crypto-native prediction market versus the original academic research market. Different infrastructure, different fees, different liquidity — and different price signals.

Last updated: March 2026

Polymarket

Crypto-Native Prediction Market

Markets: Politics, sports, crypto, culture, world events
Fees: No trading fees (gas only)
Access: Global (not available in US)
Min Trade: $1 (USDC)

PredictIt

Academic / Research Market

Markets: US politics (elections, policy, congressional)
Fees: 10% on profits + 5% withdrawal fee
Access: US-only (CFTC no-action letter, limited)
Min Trade: $1

Full comparison

Feature-by-feature breakdown across 12 categories

Feature	Polymarket	PredictIt
Platform Type	Crypto-native (Polygon blockchain)	Academic research market (university-operated)
Currency	USDC (stablecoin)	USD (bank transfer / credit card)
Market Coverage	Politics, sports, crypto, culture, science, world events	Primarily US politics and elections
Liquidity	High — largest crypto prediction market globally	Low — $850 position limits per contract
Position Limits	No limits	$850 per contract
Trading Fees	No trading fees	10% on profits + 5% on withdrawals
US Access	Not available for US users	Available to US users (with limitations)
Regulation	Offshore, no US regulatory oversight	CFTC no-action letter (academic exemption)
API Access	Full REST + CLOB + on-chain data APIs	Basic REST API
Settlement	UMA optimistic oracle (blockchain-based)	Manual by PredictIt staff
Number of Markets	Hundreds of active markets across categories	Dozens, focused on political events
Deposit Method	USDC via crypto wallet	Bank transfer, credit/debit card

Why prices differ between these platforms

Polymarket and PredictIt often list markets on the same political events, but their prices can diverge significantly. A candidate trading at 45¢ on Polymarket might trade at 48¢ on PredictIt — a 3-point gap on the same underlying outcome. These gaps exist for structural reasons.

PredictIt's $850 position limit prevents sophisticated traders from fully correcting mispricings. Its 15% combined fee load (10% on profits + 5% on withdrawals) means that prices on PredictIt represent fee-adjusted expectations, not clean probabilities. A contract at 50¢ on PredictIt implies a different true probability than 50¢ on Polymarket.

Polymarket, with no fees and no position limits, tends to produce prices closer to the market consensus. Its USDC-based settlement and global access bring in more capital and sharper pricing, particularly during high-profile events.

Analyzing the gap with EVSignals

Understanding the Polymarket-PredictIt spread requires fee-adjusted modeling. EVSignals provides:

Fee-adjusted probabilities — Normalize PredictIt prices by accounting for the 10%+5% fee structure
Cross-platform scanner — Automatically detect when the same event trades at different implied probabilities
Historical spread data — Analyze how Polymarket vs PredictIt pricing gaps have evolved over time
Data notebooks — Model the impact of PredictIt's position limits and fees on price formation

Frequently asked questions

Can US users trade on Polymarket?

No. Polymarket is not available to US-based users. PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter and is accessible to US users, though with strict position limits ($850 per contract). US users looking for prediction market access should also consider Kalshi, which is a CFTC-regulated exchange.

Why does Polymarket have better liquidity than PredictIt?

PredictIt caps individual positions at $850 per contract, which severely limits liquidity and makes it difficult for larger traders to participate. Polymarket has no position limits and operates on the Polygon blockchain, attracting global participants and institutional-scale liquidity. During major events like elections, Polymarket regularly sees tens of millions of dollars in volume.

Which platform has lower fees?

Polymarket charges no trading fees (only minimal gas costs on Polygon). PredictIt charges 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals, making it significantly more expensive. On PredictIt, a $100 profit on a trade would net you only $85.50 after fees (10% profit fee, then 5% withdrawal fee on the remainder).

How does EVSignals track both platforms?

EVSignals normalizes odds data from both Polymarket and PredictIt into a single unified schema. When the same political event trades on both platforms, the scanner identifies pricing discrepancies. Because PredictIt's high fees create persistent price distortions, the implied fair probabilities often differ significantly from Polymarket — creating analytical opportunities for researchers and traders.

Is PredictIt shutting down?

PredictIt's CFTC no-action letter was withdrawn in 2022, and the platform has been in a period of uncertainty regarding its long-term future. While it continues to operate existing markets, its regulatory status remains unclear. Check PredictIt's official channels for the latest updates on their operational status.

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