Prediction market glossary
67+ key terms from prediction markets, sports betting, and quantitative trading — defined with examples.
View documentation glossaryPopular terms
Expected Value (EV)
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you were to place the same bet many times. Calculated as: (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake). A positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable bet over time.
+EV (Positive Expected Value)
A bet where the expected value is greater than zero, meaning the true probability of winning is higher than what the odds imply. These are the opportunities EVSignals identifies.
Implied Probability
The probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. Calculated as 1 / decimal odds. Does not account for the bookmaker's margin.
Kelly Criterion
A formula for determining the optimal bet size based on your edge and bankroll. It maximizes long-term growth while minimizing risk of ruin. Formula: (bp - q) / b, where b = decimal odds - 1, p = probability of winning, q = probability of losing.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The difference between the odds you bet and the final odds at close. Consistently beating the closing line is the best indicator of long-term profitability.
Arbitrage (Arb)
A risk-free profit opportunity created when odds discrepancies between sportsbooks allow betting on all outcomes for guaranteed profit. Rare and quickly corrected.
Prediction Market
A market where participants trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimates. Examples include Polymarket and Kalshi.
Kalshi
A CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US offering contracts on economic, political, and other events. EVSignals scans Kalshi for +EV opportunities.
Polymarket
A decentralized prediction market using cryptocurrency. Offers markets on politics, sports, crypto, and current events globally.
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Expected Value & Probability
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Put these concepts to work
EVSignals gives you the tools to apply expected value, cross-platform scanning, and quantitative analysis to real prediction markets.