Expected Value (EV)
Definition
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you were to place the same bet many times. Calculated as: (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake). A positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable bet over time.
Example
If a bet has +5% EV, you can expect to profit $5 for every $100 wagered over the long run.
Related terms
+EV (Positive Expected Value)
A bet where the expected value is greater than zero, meaning the true probability of winning is higher than what the odds imply. These are the opportunities EVSignals identifies.
-EV (Negative Expected Value)
A bet where the expected value is less than zero. Most bets offered by sportsbooks are -EV due to the built-in margin (vig/juice).
Edge
The percentage advantage you have over the sportsbook. Synonymous with +EV percentage. An edge is created when you can identify the true probability more accurately than the market.
Fair Odds
The odds that would result in zero expected value - where the implied probability exactly matches the true probability. Also called 'true odds' or 'no-vig odds'.
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