Model-Based Betting
Definition
Using statistical or machine learning models to estimate true probabilities, then comparing those estimates to market prices to find edges. The most systematic approach to +EV betting.
Example
A Poisson regression model for soccer predicts goal totals, which are compared against sportsbook over/under lines.
Related terms
Matched Betting
A technique using free bet promotions and back/lay bets to guarantee profit regardless of outcome. Common with sportsbook sign-up offers. Requires accounts on multiple platforms.
Value Betting
Identifying and wagering on outcomes where the odds offered are higher than the true probability suggests. The core of profitable +EV trading. Requires accurate probability estimation.
Elo Rating
A rating system originally designed for chess that assigns numerical ratings to competitors based on win/loss records. Widely adapted for sports prediction models to estimate relative team/player strength.
Poisson Model
A statistical model using the Poisson distribution to predict the number of events (typically goals or points) in a match. Commonly used in soccer and hockey betting to derive fair odds for totals and correct scores.
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