Prediction Market
Definition
A market where participants trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimates. Examples include Polymarket and Kalshi.
Example
A contract trading at $0.65 implies a 65% probability of that outcome.
Related terms
Kalshi
A CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US offering contracts on economic, political, and other events. EVSignals scans Kalshi for +EV opportunities.
Polymarket
A decentralized prediction market using cryptocurrency. Offers markets on politics, sports, crypto, and current events globally.
Contract / Share
A tradeable unit in a prediction market that pays $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 otherwise. Buy low, sell high, or hold to resolution.
Expected Value (EV)
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you were to place the same bet many times. Calculated as: (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake). A positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable bet over time.
Use EVSignals to find +EV opportunities
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