True Probability
Definition
The actual likelihood of an outcome occurring, as estimated by models or analysis. When true probability differs from implied probability, an edge exists.
Example
A model might estimate a team's true win probability at 55% while the market implies only 48%.
Related terms
Expected Value (EV)
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you were to place the same bet many times. Calculated as: (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake). A positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable bet over time.
+EV (Positive Expected Value)
A bet where the expected value is greater than zero, meaning the true probability of winning is higher than what the odds imply. These are the opportunities EVSignals identifies.
-EV (Negative Expected Value)
A bet where the expected value is less than zero. Most bets offered by sportsbooks are -EV due to the built-in margin (vig/juice).
Edge
The percentage advantage you have over the sportsbook. Synonymous with +EV percentage. An edge is created when you can identify the true probability more accurately than the market.
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